Stocks hit new highs. CRE stocks took a hit. Treasury yields dipped. Retail sales stalled. Welcome to another week of crosscurrents.
From 30,000 feet, the market looked smooth—the S&P cracked 7,000, and the Dow topped 50,000. But up close? It felt more like the Bronx River Parkway: bumps, swerves, and plenty of head scratchers. In this episode, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dial into the disconnect. CRE brokerage stocks slid sharply even as the labor market surprised to the upside with 130,000 new jobs (up from 50,000 in December), wage growth outpaced inflation at 3.7%, and the 10-year Treasury fell from 4.30% to 4.14%.
Then we pivot to what we heard on the ground in San Diego—where EBA and MBA CREF conferences drew lenders, underwriters, consultants, and dealmakers from across the US. The MBA’s latest forecast calls for another 27% surge in CRE loan originations this year. And on the ground, green shoots abound. AI-driven leasing demand is reviving parts of San Francisco (4.3M SF of potential near-term demand). Supply-constrained Chicago multifamily is heating up. And Simon is doubling down in retail with a $250M bet on high-end mall redevelopments.
By virtually any metric, cautious optimism is the vibe. Storm clouds? Maybe. But capital is leaning in.
Tune in for the data, the debate, and what could unlock the next leg of CRE recovery—plus our take on Valentine’s Day surge pricing for red roses and dinner reservations.
04:39 Labor Market and Economic Indicators
09:22 Commercial Real Estate Trends and Predictions
13:32 Polling Insights and Market Sentiment
18:34 Regional Comebacks: San Francisco’s Revival
22:56 Chicago Multifamily Market Resurgence
26:22 Retail Sector Recovery and Future Prospects
Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com
