At the close of a volatile 2025, the LightBox CRE Activity Index reflected a market settling into a typical year-end slowdown amid ongoing uncertainty. The December 2025 Index registered 86.9, a 13% decline from November’s 99.4, consistent with—but less severe than—historical December pullbacks.
As an aggregate measure of momentum across property listings, appraisals, and environmental due diligence, the Index remained materially stronger than a year earlier. Notably, the December decline was far more moderate than the roughly 30% November-to-December drop recorded last year, when post-election uncertainty weighed heavily on activity.
Inside the December LightBox CRE Activity Index:
- How this December’s slowdown stacks up against last year, and what the year-over-year gap reveals about underlying momentum.
- What last fall’s rise in property listings signaled ahead of December’s transaction strength.
- The three signals that suggest December’s slowdown reflected seasonality, not stress, across lending, deal flow, and capital deployment.
LightBox CRE Activity Index at a glance
With December Behind Us, Attention Turns to January’s CRE Activity Index
Unlike December one year ago, when post-presidential election fiscal policy uncertainty weighed heavily on sentiment, the current pullback is primarily tied to holiday-related lulls in listings, appraisals, and environmental due diligence.
Importantly, the Index finished 49% higher than December 2024, highlighting the degree of recovery achieved over the past year. With election-related uncertainty largely behind the market and capital availability improving, the December decline should be interpreted as transitional rather than structural.
The January CRE Activity Index will be an important early indicator of Q1 momentum as capital deployment becomes increasingly targeted, and the steady wave of loan maturities continues to bring assets to market.
