Avoid the CRE FOMO: The 5 Leading News Stories of the Week of April 7th-11th

Each week, LightBox carefully selects the most impactful economic news, market metrics, in-house data and analysis, and transactions shaping the CRE industry.

In This Week’s Edition:

1. Tug of Tariffs: Equity Market Soars, Then Stumbles as Trade Tensions Mount
2. LightBox Expert Manus Clancy: Is CRE a Safe Harbor in Stormy Markets?
3. Strong Earnings Reports from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo Point to Uncertain Outlook
4. Major Price Indices Cool-but Is It the Calm Before the Storm?
5. FedWatch: HUD Changes and What They Mean for the Market

1. Tug of Tariffs: Equity Market Soars, Then Stumbles as Trade Tensions Mount

Last week the tariff wars continued to dominate the headlines, and the U.S.-China conflict has intensified significantly. As the equity markets demonstrated, conditions can change quickly. President Trump escalated tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, and China responded with a retaliatory 125% tariff on U.S. goods. In a reversal of the April 2^nd “liberation day” announcement, Trump concurrently provided a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for over 75 other countries, maintaining a 10% baseline tariff as bilateral trade discussions continue. The equity markets rallied. The S&P 500 surged by 9.5%, marking the third-largest single-day gains since World War II, as investors welcomed the tariff pause. By week’s end, after more volatility, the S&P 500 was showing signs of recovery. The 10-year Treasury yield showed similar volatility, starting last week at 4.15%, climbing steadily as the week progressed peaking at 4.44% on Friday, as investor’s concerns over the inflationary impact of higher tariffs intensified.

The LightBox Take: The situation is fluid and as the past few weeks demonstrated, things can change very quickly. In response to the whipsaw developments in tariff policies, slower economic growth scenarios are becoming the new consensus among forecasters as the odds of a mild recession rise. Much remains unclear, the greatest of which is the length that tariffs will be in effect and at what level, particularly for China. Outreach to LightBox clients showed that many have real concerns about a potential recession and are watching market developments closely, but brokerage teams are staying busy with strong volumes of new listings in the pipeline, which is fueling a surprising sense of optimism.

2. LightBox Expert Manus Clancy: Is CRE a Safe Harbor in Stormy Markets?

Given the trade turmoil and intense market volatility, LightBox’s head of Data Strategy, Manus Clancy made a strong case that CRE is emerging as a relative safe haven for investors seeking stability. Unlike retail sectors like apparel, electronics, and furniture that rely heavily on global supply chains, stabilized CRE assets like multifamily housing, industrial, and senior living are less exposed to tariff-related cost shocks. Clancy pointed to the strength of long-term leases and stable operating expenses as key advantages. However, he noted potential vulnerabilities in hotels, which could suffer from recession-driven drops in travel, and retail, already under pressure from e-commerce trends.

The LightBox Take: CRE’s resilience may signal a potential decoupling from the broader market turmoil of the past several weeks. Investors are shifting focus toward income-producing, low-volatility assets. CRE professionals should look for continued strength in multifamily and industrial—and monitor lender appetite as refinancing risk looms in today’s high-rate, high-volatility environment. Two critical caveats could undermine CRE’s safe haven status and are worth noting. Landlords could struggle to refinance as lenders pull back the reins on debt capital, and if tariffs persist for an extended period, it could lead to a deep recession and more widespread economic impacts with implications for CRE fundamentals.

3. Strong Earnings Reports from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo Point to Uncertain Outlook

The eagerly awaited quarterly earnings from big banks arrived at week’s end, led by first reports from JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo. JPMorgan Chase reported strong first-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing analyst expectations. Revenue of $45.3 billion, increased from $41.9 billion year over year and net interest income of $23.4 billion, beat the $23 billion consensus. Wells Fargo revenue came in slightly below estimates at $20.15 billion and net interest income declined 6% to $11.5 billion. Investors were more focused on what bank leadership had to say about the outlook than prior financials. CEO Jamie Dimon warned of “considerable turbulence” in the economy, citing potential challenges such as geopolitical tensions, tariffs, persistent inflation, and high asset prices, while acknowledging possible benefits from tax reforms and deregulation. Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf emphasized the need for a timely resolution to rising trade tensions, citing risks tied to the Trump administration’s tariff actions.

The LightBox Take: Despite beating earnings expectations, big bank CEOs are sending a clear message: the road ahead is rocky. Dimon’s warning on waning corporate confidence reportedly helped prompt Trump’s tariff pause last week, but uncertainty still looms large. With rising Treasury yields and economic cracks emerging, bank executives are watching closely and bracing for a slowdown that could ripple far beyond Wall Street.

4. Major Price Indices Cool—but Is It the Calm Before the Storm?

Last week’s inflation reports with the latest CPI and PPI data delivered a surprise: Both consumer and producer prices fell in March, offering a rare dual signal of easing price pressures. The CPI slipped 0.1% month-over-month—its first decline since 2020—driven largely by falling gasoline and shelter costs. Annual CPI cooled to 2.4%, and core CPI slowed to 2.8%, both below forecasts. The PPI, a major upstream inflation gauge, fell by an even steeper 0.4% in March, with food and energy costs leading the drop. Core PPI declined 0.1%—notably, its first drop in over a year. These reports point to meaningful disinflation in the pipeline—at least before the full effect of Trump’s new tariffs kicks in. While markets initially welcomed the news, economists remain cautious.

The LightBox Take: The softer data could strengthen the case for a Fed rate cut later this year, but central bankers remain concerned that newly imposed tariffs—especially the 145% duty on Chinese goods—could reignite inflation and strain supply chains. Since most of the new tariffs only took effect early this month, their inflationary impact hasn’t hit the CPI yet. Fed officials are increasingly bracing for potential stagflation—a combination of slowing economic growth and resurgent inflation. Last week’s market volatility and the new price data is prompting discussions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance with some analysts suggesting that persistent market instability could necessitate intervention to stabilize the financial sector. PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred gauge, lands on April 30 prior to the next Fed meeting in May.

5. FedWatch: HUD Changes and What They Mean for the Market

In the first blog in a series dedicated to the market impact of new federal policies, LightBox released its inaugural FedWatch blog that dives into how the recent sweeping changes at the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) are reshaping housing policy. Key changes include tighter FHA mortgage eligibility, HUD workforce cuts, the rollback of the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) rule, and a freeze on the Green and Resilient Retrofit Program (GRRP). The administration’s decision in mid-March to freeze the $1.4 billion GRRP has left numerous affordable housing projects in limbo. The GRRP program focuses on energy-efficient improvements and distributes grants and loans to affordable housing in need of updates. While HUD clarified that the program hasn’t been canceled, it is under review to ensure alignment with its core mission of providing fair and affordable housing.

The LightBox Take: New federal funding freezes at HUD could have wide-reaching impacts on commercial real estate, housing markets, and green lending. Affordable housing projects reliant on HUD financing are already stalled, disrupting development pipelines and environmental consulting work. The freeze may also slow progress on energy-efficient upgrades and undermine confidence in green finance programs tied to HUD, such as Green MIP incentives. With fewer resources and growing uncertainty, developers and lenders may shift focus to more predictable private capital sources, potentially reducing momentum on sustainability-focused real estate investment in vulnerable communities. More broadly, the freeze reflects a changing federal landscape. Programs once seen as steady sources of billable work—such as HUD’s Green MIP mortgage insurance incentives—are now in jeopardy. 

Important dates and industry events this week

• Tuesday, April 15
  • Import price index
• Wednesday, April 16
  • Retail sales, industrial production, home builder confidence index
• Thursday, April 17
  • Initial jobless claims, housing starts and building permits

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